A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
